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Hidden inequalities in the exposure to crime in Glasgow and Manchester

It is well evidenced that exposure to crime varies across urban space, with crime concentrating within a small proportion of locations (Weisburd, 2015; Rey et al, 2012; Braga et al, 2010). Further evidence suggests the spatial pattering of crime is associated with deprivation (Livingston et al., 2014). Thus, certain types of communities bear a disproportionate burden of recorded crime and with that, disorder and vulnerability. Building on the work of Hope et al (2001), this research will seek to assess whether there are also hidden inequalities in the exposure to crime. In other words, are certain types of community less likely to report crime and, therefore, experience an even greater burden of crime than that manifest by recorded crime? Relatedly, if certain types of community are more likely to report crime, do they capture a disproportionate amount of police resource?

In this paper, we adopt a Bayesian framework and apply hierarchical modelling (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA)) to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of the relationship between recorded crime and non-crime incidents, controlling for are deprivation. To exclude place sensitivity, findings are compared for two large metropolitan agglomerations – Greater Manchester and Greater Glasgow.
Our findings indicate that the association between reported and recorded crime vary significantly by crime type and the level of area deprivation – demonstrating the existence of significant hidden inequalities. We interpret the potential explanation of these results.

For more information about this research, please contact Professor Jon Bannister.

This work also involves colleagues Karolina Krzemieniewska-Nandwani and Stephanie Wallace from Manchester Metropolitan University.







Research Team