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Journal article: Inferring neighbourhood quality with property transaction records by using a locally adaptive spatial multi-level model

Dong, G; Wolf, L; Alexiou, A; Arribas-Bel, D

Journal of Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 


Social and physical processes often exhibit both macro-level geographic smoothness – implying positive spatial dependence – and micro-level discontinuities – suggesting implicit step changes or boundaries in the data. However, a simultaneous treatment of the two features in a unified statistical model poses great challenges. This study extends an innovative locally adaptive spatial auto-regressive modelling approach to a multi-level modelling framework in order to explore multiple-scale geographical data. It develops a Bayesian locally adaptive spatial multi-level model that takes into account horizontal global spatial dependence and local step changes, as well as a vertical group dependency effect imposed by the multiple-scale data structure. At its heart, the correlation structures of spatial units implied by a spatial weights matrix are learned along with other model parameters using an iterative estimation algorithm, rather than being assumed to be invariant and exogenous. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler for implementing this new spatial multi-level model is derived. The developed methodology is applied to infer neighbourhood quality using property transaction data, and to examine potential correlates of neighbourhood quality in Liverpool. The results reveal a complex and fragmented geography of neighbourhood quality; besides an overall smoothness trend, boundaries delimiting neighbourhood quality are scattered across Liverpool. Socio-economics, built environment, and locational characteristics are statistically significantly associated with neighbourhood quality.

This article was published in the Journal of Computers, Environment and Urban Systems in January 2019 and is available in full online